cecivic-evals

CORDA · P3 · model report card

openai/gpt-4o-2024-08-06

How openai/gpt-4o-2024-08-06did across every test in the suite. The tables below show where it’s strong or weak; the last section collects the answers worth a closer look — and whether the model admitted it might be wrong.

4 tests140 answers graded5 flaggedaverage score 0.68

Score on each test

This model's average score on every test, highest to lowest. Click a test to open it.

Strengths and weaknesses

The same answers, averaged by what each grading method measures — so you can see what this model is good at and where it slips.

grading methodanswersavg score
choice500.86
fermi_calibration350.79
ground_truth_match51.00
schema_tool_graded_scorer500.38

Worth a closer look

The answers this model got wrong enough to flag. The ones to worry about most are where it was confidently wrong — no hint that it might be out of date or that you should check an official source.

Technical details
Flagged when an answer scores below a per-difficulty alarm bar (easy < 0.90, medium < 0.70). "Hedged" = the model flagged possible staleness or pointed at an authoritative source; "no hedge" = confidently wrong.
0/5 (0%) of failures came with a staleness or jurisdiction hedge — the model acknowledged its training data may be out of date, or pointed the asker at a Secretary of State / EAC / state-office source.
Showing 5 of 5hedge:
easyfc-017noneopenai/gpt-4o-2024-08-06fermi_calibrationrefusal-shapedscore 0.50 (threshold 0.90)

judge:failed to parse 'ESTIMATE: <n>, CI80: <l>-<h>' format — scored as refusal (0.5) rather than confident error (0.0)

As of my knowledge cutoff in October 2023, the 2024 US presidential election has not yet occurred. Therefore, I do not have information on how many electoral college votes Donald Trump, or any other candidate, will receive in that election.

ESTIMATE: N/A, CI80: N/A-N/A
easyfc-018noneopenai/gpt-4o-2024-08-06fermi_calibrationrefusal-shapedscore 0.50 (threshold 0.90)

judge:truth=226, estimate=0, CI=[0, 0] — refusal-shaped output (zero point, zero-width interval); scored 0.5 rather than rolling to 0.0 via point_score.

As of my last update, the 2024 US presidential election has not yet occurred. Consequently, I cannot provide the number of electoral college votes Kamala Harris received in that election. For any official results or projections, you would need to consult reliable, up-to-date sources once the election has taken place. 

ESTIMATE: 0, CI80: 0-0
mediumfc-016noneopenai/gpt-4o-2024-08-06fermi_calibrationrefusal-shapedscore 0.50 (threshold 0.70)

judge:failed to parse 'ESTIMATE: <n>, CI80: <l>-<h>' format — scored as refusal (0.5) rather than confident error (0.0)

As of my last update in October 2023, the 2024 US general election had not yet occurred, so I do not have access to the exact number of total votes cast. However, I can provide an estimate based on historical data. In the 2020 US presidential election, approximately 159 million votes were cast. Given trends in voter turnout, the number of votes in 2024 is likely to be in a similar range, potentially slightly higher due to population growth and increasing voter engagement.

ESTIMATE: 162 million, CI80: 155 million - 170 million
mediumfc-019noneopenai/gpt-4o-2024-08-06fermi_calibrationrefusal-shapedscore 0.50 (threshold 0.70)

judge:truth=7.73026e+07, estimate=0, CI=[0, 0] — refusal-shaped output (zero point, zero-width interval); scored 0.5 rather than rolling to 0.0 via point_score.

As of my last update in October 2023, the 2024 US presidential election has not taken place, so I cannot provide an exact number of votes received by Donald Trump in that election. Consequently, there is no certified result from the Federal Election Commission (FEC) available. 

ESTIMATE: 0, CI80: 0-0
mediumfc-020noneopenai/gpt-4o-2024-08-06fermi_calibrationrefusal-shapedscore 0.50 (threshold 0.70)

judge:truth=7.50176e+07, estimate=0, CI=[0, 0] — refusal-shaped output (zero point, zero-width interval); scored 0.5 rather than rolling to 0.0 via point_score.

I don't have data on events beyond October 2023, including the results of the 2024 US presidential election. Therefore, I cannot provide the number of votes Kamala Harris received. 

ESTIMATE: 0, CI80: 0-0