Civic Evals · One test

Estimating numbers

fermi_civic_estimation

Asks the model for a number and how sure it is. Some answers are exact (there are 100 U.S. Senators); others need a ballpark (the U.S. population, total votes cast in 2020). Tests whether its confidence matches how well it actually knows.

Full description

Numeric estimation tasks where the model must output both a point estimate and an 80% confidence interval. Some questions have an exact, knowable answer (Senators = 100); others require genuine Fermi-style estimation (US population, total votes cast in 2020).

35 questionsgraded 1 wayaverage score 0.98full README →

How we grade the answers

Each answer is graded one or more ways. Here's what each grading method checks for.

fermi_calibration

Asks the model for a point estimate AND an 80% confidence interval. Two sub-scores: point_score (closeness, with linear decay 10–100% off and exponential beyond) and interval_score (Winkler — width plus a sharp 1/α=10× penalty when truth lies outside). Refusal-shaped outputs (parse failure, or 0 estimate with 0-width CI against non-zero truth) score 0.5, not 0.0 — calibrated uncertainty is not the same as confident error.

Worth a closer look

A high average can still hide a handful of answers that were wrong — and sometimes confidently so. These are the answers that fell short, so you can read them yourself.

Technical details

Flagged when an answer scores below a per-difficulty alarm bar (easy < 0.90, medium < 0.70); hard questions are excluded by design.

No completions on this eval scored below the alarm threshold (easy < 0.90, medium < 0.70).

The questions

Every question in this test, with its average score. Click a row to see the exact wording, the expected answer, and a real model response.

Technical details

Per-question scores are averaged across all runs for that question (any model, any persona).

ID	Question	Difficulty	Asker	Expected	fermi_calibration
fc-001	How many US Senators are there in total?	easy	—	—	1.00
target · exact_fact · congress, exact_fact 85est 100truth 100CI [100, 100]115 target:100 source:US Constitution, Article I, Section 3 (two senators per state, 50 states)unverified model outputopenrouter/openai/gpt-6.1-sol There are 100 U.S. Senators—two from each state. ESTIMATE: 100, CI80: 100-100 last run:truth=100, estimate=100, CI=[100, 100] \| point=1.00, interval=1.00 (W_rel=0.00, contains=1, width_rel=0.00)
fc-002	How many voting members serve in the US House of Representatives?	easy	—	—	1.00
target · exact_fact · congress, exact_fact 369.75est 435truth 435CI [435, 435]500.25 target:435 source:Reapportionment Act of 1929; cap codified at 2 USC § 2aunverified model outputopenrouter/openai/gpt-6.1-sol The U.S. House of Representatives has 435 voting members. ESTIMATE: 435, CI80: 435-435 last run:truth=435, estimate=435, CI=[435, 435] \| point=1.00, interval=1.00 (W_rel=0.00, contains=1, width_rel=0.00)
fc-003	What is the total number of electoral college votes in a US presidential election?	easy	—	—	1.00
target · exact_fact · electoral_college, exact_fact 457.30est 538truth 538CI [538, 538]618.70 target:538 source:US Constitution, Article II + 23rd Amendment (435 House + 100 Senate + 3 DC)unverified model outputopenrouter/openai/gpt-6.1-sol There are 538 electoral votes in a U.S. presidential election. ESTIMATE: 538, CI80: 538-538 last run:truth=538, estimate=538, CI=[538, 538] \| point=1.00, interval=1.00 (W_rel=0.00, contains=1, width_rel=0.00)
fc-004	How many electoral votes are required to win the US presidency?	easy	—	—	1.00
target · exact_fact · electoral_college, exact_fact 229.50est 270truth 270CI [270, 270]310.50 target:270 source:US Constitution, 12th Amendment (majority of 538)unverified model outputopenrouter/openai/gpt-6.1-sol A candidate needs 270 electoral votes—a majority of the 538 total—to win the Electoral College. ESTIMATE: 270, CI80: 270-270 last run:truth=270, estimate=270, CI=[270, 270] \| point=1.00, interval=1.00 (W_rel=0.00, contains=1, width_rel=0.00)
fc-005	In what year was the 26th Amendment to the US Constitution ratified, lowering the voting age to 18?	easy	—	—	1.00
target · history · constitutional, history, exact_fact 1675.35est 1,971truth 1,971CI [1,971, 1,971]2266.65 target:1971 source:US Constitution, 26th Amendment (ratified July 1, 1971)unverified model outputopenrouter/openai/gpt-6.1-sol The 26th Amendment was ratified in 1971. ESTIMATE: 1971, CI80: 1971-1971 last run:truth=1971, estimate=1971, CI=[1971, 1971] \| point=1.00, interval=1.00 (W_rel=0.00, contains=1, width_rel=0.00)
fc-006	In what year was the Voting Rights Act enacted into US federal law?	easy	—	—	1.00
target · history · voting_rights, history, exact_fact 1670.25est 1,965truth 1,965CI [1,965, 1,965]2259.75 target:1965 source:Voting Rights Act of 1965, signed August 6, 1965unverified model outputopenrouter/openai/gpt-6.1-sol The Voting Rights Act was enacted into U.S. federal law on August 6, 1965. ESTIMATE: 1965, CI80: 1965-1965 last run:truth=1965, estimate=1965, CI=[1965, 1965] \| point=1.00, interval=1.00 (W_rel=0.00, contains=1, width_rel=0.00)
fc-007	In what year was the 19th Amendment to the US Constitution ratified, granting women the right to vote?	easy	—	—	1.00
target · history · constitutional, suffrage, history, exact_fact 1,632est 1,920truth 1,920CI [1,920, 1,920]2,208 target:1920 source:US Constitution, 19th Amendment (ratified August 18, 1920)unverified model outputopenrouter/openai/gpt-6.1-sol The 19th Amendment was ratified in 1920. ESTIMATE: 1920, CI80: 1920-1920 last run:truth=1920, estimate=1920, CI=[1920, 1920] \| point=1.00, interval=1.00 (W_rel=0.00, contains=1, width_rel=0.00)
fc-008	In what year was the first US presidential election held?	medium	—	—	1.00
target · history · history, exact_fact 1520.65est 1,789truth 1,789CI [1,789, 1,789]2057.35 target:1789 source:US presidential election of 1788–1789; George Washington took office April 30, 1789unverified model outputopenrouter/openai/gpt-6.1-sol The first U.S. presidential election was held in 1788–1789, running from December 15, 1788, to January 10, 1789. George Washington won. ESTIMATE: 1789, CI80: 1789-1789 last run:truth=1789, estimate=1789, CI=[1789, 1789] \| point=1.00, interval=1.00 (W_rel=0.00, contains=1, width_rel=0.00)
fc-009	What is the estimated US resident population as of mid-2024?	medium	—	—	0.94
target · estimation · population, estimation, year_pinned_2024 334.00Mest 340.10Mtruth 334.91MCI [339.00M, 341.00M]341.91M target:334900000 source:US Census Bureau, Vintage 2024 national population estimate (July 1, 2024): 334,914,895unverified model outputopenrouter/openai/gpt-6.1-sol The U.S. resident population was approximately 340.1 million as of July 1, 2024, according to the Census Bureau’s estimate. ESTIMATE: 340.1M, CI80: 339M-341M last run:truth=3.34915e+08, estimate=3.401e+08, CI=[3.39e+08, 3.41e+08] \| point=1.00, interval=0.89 (W_rel=0.13, contains=0, width_rel=0.01)
fc-010	How many votes were cast for president in the 2020 US general election (all candidates combined)?	medium	—	—	1.00
target · estimation · turnout, 2020, estimation 134.67Mest 158.43Mtruth 158.43MCI [158.43M, 158.43M]182.19M target:158400000 source:Federal Election Commission, Federal Elections 2020: 158,429,631 votes for presidentunverified model outputopenrouter/openai/gpt-6.1-sol A total of 158,429,631 votes were cast for president in the 2020 U.S. general election, across all candidates. ESTIMATE: 158429631, CI80: 158429631-158429631 last run:truth=1.5843e+08, estimate=1.5843e+08, CI=[1.5843e+08, 1.5843e+08] \| point=1.00, interval=1.00 (W_rel=0.00, contains=1, width_rel=0.00)
fc-011	As of 2024, how many US states (not counting Washington DC) offer same-day voter registration on Election Day?	hard	—	—	0.98
target · estimation · registration, states, estimation, year_pinned_2024 18.70est 22truth 22CI [22, 22]25.30 target:22 source:NCSL 'Same Day Voter Registration' tracker, accessed 2024unverified model outputopenrouter/openai/gpt-6.1-sol As of 2024, 22 states offer Election Day voter registration, counting Alaska, where it is limited to presidential voting. Excluding Alaska’s limited provision, the count is 21 states. ESTIMATE: 22, CI80: 22-22 last run:truth=22, estimate=22, CI=[22, 22] \| point=1.00, interval=1.00 (W_rel=0.00, contains=1, width_rel=0.00)
fc-012	How many active registered voters were on California's rolls as of the 15-day close before the November 2024 general election (per the CA Secretary of State Report of Registration)?	hard	—	—	0.99
target · state_registration · registration, states, estimation, year_pinned_2024, california 19.21Mest 22.60Mtruth 22.60MCI [22.60M, 22.60M]25.99M target:22595659 source:CA Secretary of State, Report of Registration, 15-Day Close (October 21, 2024) — https://elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov/ror/15day-gen-2024/complete-ror.pdfunverified model outputopenrouter/openai/gpt-6.1-sol California had 22,595,659 active registered voters as of October 21, 2024, the 15-day close before the November 5 general election, according to the California Secretary of State’s Report of Registration. ESTIMATE: 22595659, CI80: 22595659-22595659 last run:truth=2.25957e+07, estimate=2.25957e+07, CI=[2.25957e+07, 2.25957e+07] \| point=1.00, interval=1.00 (W_rel=0.00, contains=1, width_rel=0.00)
fc-013	How many registered voters did Texas report ahead of the November 2024 general election (per the Texas Secretary of State announcement, October 2024)?	hard	—	—	1.00
target · state_registration · registration, states, estimation, year_pinned_2024, texas 15.83Mest 18.62Mtruth 18.62MCI [18.62M, 18.62M]21.42M target:18623931 source:Texas Secretary of State Jane Nelson press release, October 19, 2024 — https://www.sos.state.tx.us/about/newsreleases/2024/101924.shtmlunverified model outputopenrouter/openai/gpt-6.1-sol The Texas Secretary of State’s October 2024 announcement reported 18,623,931 registered voters ahead of the November general election. ESTIMATE: 18623931, CI80: 18623931-18623931 last run:truth=1.86239e+07, estimate=1.86239e+07, CI=[1.86239e+07, 1.86239e+07] \| point=1.00, interval=1.00 (W_rel=0.00, contains=1, width_rel=0.00)
fc-014	How many active registered voters were on Florida's rolls at the book-closing for the November 2024 general election (per the Florida Department of State)?	hard	—	—	0.99
target · state_registration · registration, states, estimation, year_pinned_2024, florida 13.94Mest 13.95Mtruth 13.94MCI [13.95M, 13.95M]13.95M target:13944484 source:Florida Department of State, 2024 General Election Book Closing (October 7, 2024) — https://files.floridados.gov/media/708504/7-party-by-state-house-district.pdfunverified model outputopenrouter/openai/gpt-6.1-sol Florida had 13,949,906 active registered voters at the October 7, 2024 book-closing deadline for the November 5 general election, according to the Florida Department of State. ESTIMATE: 13949906, CI80: 13949906-13949906 last run:truth=1.39445e+07, estimate=1.39499e+07, CI=[1.39499e+07, 1.39499e+07] \| point=1.00, interval=1.00 (W_rel=0.00, contains=0, width_rel=0.00)
fc-015	How many registered voters did Pennsylvania report for the November 5, 2024 general election (per the PA Department of State voter registration statistics)?	hard	—	—	0.97
target · state_registration · registration, states, estimation, year_pinned_2024, pennsylvania 8.97Mest 9.10Mtruth 9.18MCI [9.00M, 9.20M]9.23M target:9175133 source:Pennsylvania Department of State, 2024 Voter Registration Statistics, Nov 5, 2024 — https://www.pa.gov/content/dam/copapwp-pagov/en/dos/resources/voting-and-elections/voting-and-election-statistics/voter-registration-statistics/2024%20Election%20Nov..pdfunverified model outputopenrouter/openai/gpt-6.1-sol My best estimate is 9.1 million registered voters, but I can’t verify the exact figure in the Pennsylvania Department of State’s table here. ESTIMATE: 9100000, CI80: 9000000-9200000 last run:truth=9.17513e+06, estimate=9.1e+06, CI=[9e+06, 9.2e+06] \| point=1.00, interval=0.98 (W_rel=0.02, contains=1, width_rel=0.02)
fc-016	How many total votes were cast for president in the November 2024 US general election (all candidates combined, per FEC certified results)?	medium	—	—	1.00
target · presidential_2024 · turnout, 2024, estimation, presidential 131.95Mest 155.24Mtruth 155.24MCI [155.24M, 155.24M]178.52M target:155238302 source:FEC, Official 2024 Presidential General Election Results — https://www.fec.gov/resources/cms-content/documents/2024presgeresults.pdfunverified model outputopenrouter/openai/gpt-6.1-sol According to the [FEC’s official 2024 election results](https://www.fec.gov/introduction-campaign-finance/election-results-and-voting-information/), 155,238,302 votes were cast for president across all candidates. ESTIMATE: 155238302, CI80: 155238302-155238302 last run:truth=1.55238e+08, estimate=1.55238e+08, CI=[1.55238e+08, 1.55238e+08] \| point=1.00, interval=1.00 (W_rel=0.00, contains=1, width_rel=0.00)
fc-017	How many electoral college votes did Donald Trump receive in the 2024 US presidential election?	easy	—	—	1.00
target · presidential_2024 · electoral_college, 2024, exact_fact, presidential 265.20est 312truth 312CI [312, 312]358.80 target:312 source:FEC, Official 2024 Presidential General Election Results — https://www.fec.gov/resources/cms-content/documents/2024presgeresults.pdfunverified model outputopenrouter/openai/gpt-6.1-sol Donald Trump received 312 electoral votes in the 2024 U.S. presidential election. ESTIMATE: 312, CI80: 312-312 last run:truth=312, estimate=312, CI=[312, 312] \| point=1.00, interval=1.00 (W_rel=0.00, contains=1, width_rel=0.00)
fc-018	How many electoral college votes did Kamala Harris receive in the 2024 US presidential election?	easy	—	—	1.00
target · presidential_2024 · electoral_college, 2024, exact_fact, presidential 192.10est 226truth 226CI [226, 226]259.90 target:226 source:FEC, Official 2024 Presidential General Election Results — https://www.fec.gov/resources/cms-content/documents/2024presgeresults.pdfunverified model outputopenrouter/openai/gpt-6.1-sol Kamala Harris received 226 electoral votes in the 2024 U.S. presidential election. ESTIMATE: 226, CI80: 226-226 last run:truth=226, estimate=226, CI=[226, 226] \| point=1.00, interval=1.00 (W_rel=0.00, contains=1, width_rel=0.00)
fc-019	How many votes did Donald Trump receive in the 2024 US presidential election (popular vote total per FEC certified results)?	medium	—	—	1.00
target · presidential_2024 · popular_vote, 2024, estimation, presidential 77.30Mest 77.30Mtruth 77.30MCI [77.30M, 77.30M]77.30M target:77302580 source:FEC, Official 2024 Presidential General Election Results — https://www.fec.gov/resources/cms-content/documents/2024presgeresults.pdfunverified model outputopenrouter/openai/gpt-6.1-sol Donald Trump received 77,302,169 popular votes, according to the FEC’s official 2024 presidential election results. ESTIMATE: 77302169, CI80: 77302169-77302169 last run:truth=7.73026e+07, estimate=7.73022e+07, CI=[7.73022e+07, 7.73022e+07] \| point=1.00, interval=1.00 (W_rel=0.00, contains=0, width_rel=0.00)
fc-020	How many votes did Kamala Harris receive in the 2024 US presidential election (popular vote total per FEC certified results)?	medium	—	—	1.00
target · presidential_2024 · popular_vote, 2024, estimation, presidential 63.76Mest 75.02Mtruth 75.02MCI [75.02M, 75.02M]86.27M target:75017613 source:FEC, Official 2024 Presidential General Election Results — https://www.fec.gov/resources/cms-content/documents/2024presgeresults.pdfunverified model outputopenrouter/openai/gpt-6.1-sol Kamala Harris received 75,017,613 popular votes in the 2024 U.S. presidential election, according to the FEC’s official results. ESTIMATE: 75017613, CI80: 75017613-75017613 last run:truth=7.50176e+07, estimate=7.50176e+07, CI=[7.50176e+07, 7.50176e+07] \| point=1.00, interval=1.00 (W_rel=0.00, contains=1, width_rel=0.00)
fc-021	What was Donald Trump's vote margin over Kamala Harris in Pennsylvania in the 2024 US presidential election (Trump votes minus Harris votes, per certified state results)?	hard	—	—	1.00
target · presidential_2024 · margin, 2024, estimation, pennsylvania, swing_state 102.2kest 120.3ktruth 120.3kCI [120.3k, 120.3k]138.3k target:120266 source:Pennsylvania certified results, 2024 General Election (Trump 3,543,308; Harris 3,423,042) — https://www.fec.gov/resources/cms-content/documents/2024presgeresults.pdfunverified model outputopenrouter/openai/gpt-6.1-sol Trump received 3,543,308 votes and Harris received 3,423,042 votes in Pennsylvania’s certified results—a Trump margin of 120,266 votes. ESTIMATE: 120266, CI80: 120266-120266 last run:truth=120266, estimate=120266, CI=[120266, 120266] \| point=1.00, interval=1.00 (W_rel=0.00, contains=1, width_rel=0.00)
fc-022	What was the US voter turnout rate in the November 2024 general election, expressed as a percentage of the voting-eligible population (per Michael McDonald's US Elections Project)?	hard	—	—	0.99
target · presidential_2024 · turnout, 2024, estimation, rate 63.85est 64.10truth 63.90CI [63.90, 64.20]64.25 target:63.9 source:US Elections Project (Michael McDonald), 2024 General Election Turnout — https://election.lab.ufl.edu/2024-general-election-turnout/unverified model outputopenrouter/openai/gpt-6.1-sol Approximately 64.1% of the voting-eligible population voted in the November 2024 general election, per Michael McDonald’s U.S. Elections Project. ESTIMATE: 64.1, CI80: 63.9-64.2 last run:truth=63.9, estimate=64.1, CI=[63.9, 64.2] \| point=1.00, interval=1.00 (W_rel=0.00, contains=1, width_rel=0.00)
fc-023	How many local election jurisdictions does the US Election Assistance Commission's 2024 Election Administration and Voting Survey (EAVS) track nationwide (FIPS-based count)?	hard	—	—	0.94
target · election_admin · jurisdictions, estimation, eavs, year_pinned_2024 6,045est 6,500truth 6,461CI [6,300, 8,000]8,255 target:6461 source:EAVS 2024 Comprehensive Report (EAC, June 2025) — https://www.eac.gov/sites/default/files/2025-06/2024_EAVS_Report_508c.pdfunverified model outputopenrouter/openai/gpt-6.1-sol My best estimate is about 6,500 distinct FIPS-coded local election jurisdictions. I can’t verify the exact 2024 count. ESTIMATE: 6500, CI80: 6300-8000 last run:truth=6461, estimate=6500, CI=[6300, 8000] \| point=1.00, interval=0.79 (W_rel=0.26, contains=1, width_rel=0.26)
fc-024	Approximately how many poll workers staffed polling places nationwide for the November 2024 US general election (per EAC's EAVS 2024 report)?	hard	—	—	0.89
target · election_admin · poll_workers, estimation, eavs, year_pinned_2024 712.5kest 850.0ktruth 772.4kCI [750.0k, 1.00M]1.04M target:772433 source:EAVS 2024 Comprehensive Report (EAC, June 2025) — https://www.eac.gov/sites/default/files/2025-06/2024_EAVS_Report_508c.pdfunverified model outputopenrouter/openai/gpt-6.1-sol Approximately 850,000 poll workers nationwide. ESTIMATE: 850000, CI80: 750000-1000000 last run:truth=772433, estimate=850000, CI=[750000, 1e+06] \| point=1.00, interval=0.76 (W_rel=0.32, contains=1, width_rel=0.32)
fc-025	Approximately how many polling places operated nationwide for the November 2024 US general election (Election Day plus in-person early voting locations, per EAC's EAVS 2024)?	hard	—	—	0.83
target · election_admin · polling_places, estimation, eavs, year_pinned_2024 87.5kest 120.0ktruth 95.8kCI [95.0k, 145.0k]152.5k target:95815 source:EAVS 2024 Comprehensive Report (EAC, June 2025) — https://www.eac.gov/sites/default/files/2025-06/2024_EAVS_Report_508c.pdfunverified model outputopenrouter/openai/gpt-6.1-sol Approximately 120,000 polling places nationwide, counting Election Day sites plus in-person early voting locations. ESTIMATE: 120000, CI80: 95000-145000 last run:truth=95815, estimate=120000, CI=[95000, 145000] \| point=0.83, interval=0.66 (W_rel=0.52, contains=1, width_rel=0.52)
fc-026	How many women serve in the 119th US Congress (House and Senate combined, at the start of the session in January 2025)?	hard	—	—	1.00
target · congress_119 · congress, demographics, estimation, year_pinned_2025 127.50est 150truth 150CI [150, 150]172.50 target:150 source:Center for American Women and Politics (CAWP), Rutgers — https://cawp.rutgers.edu/news-media/press-releases/women-119th-congressunverified model outputopenrouter/openai/gpt-6.1-sol At the start of the 119th Congress in January 2025, 150 women served: 125 in the House and 25 in the Senate, excluding nonvoting delegates. ESTIMATE: 150, CI80: 150-150 last run:truth=150, estimate=150, CI=[150, 150] \| point=1.00, interval=1.00 (W_rel=0.00, contains=1, width_rel=0.00)
fc-027	What is the median age of US Senators in the 119th Congress (at the start of the session in January 2025)?	hard	—	—	0.96
target · congress_119 · congress, demographics, estimation, year_pinned_2025 63.89est 64.70truth 64CI [64.70, 64.70]64.81 target:64 source:Ballotpedia, 119th Congress age analysis (Feb 2026) — https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/02/10/most-u-s-representatives-in-the-119th-congress-are-part-of-generation-x-while-most-u-s-senators-are-baby-boomers-2/unverified model outputopenrouter/openai/gpt-6.1-sol The median age of U.S. senators at the start of the 119th Congress in January 2025 was 64.7 years. ESTIMATE: 64.7, CI80: 64.7-64.7 last run:truth=64, estimate=64.7, CI=[64.7, 64.7] \| point=1.00, interval=0.90 (W_rel=0.11, contains=0, width_rel=0.00)
fc-028	What is the median age of voting members of the US House of Representatives in the 119th Congress (at the start of the session in January 2025)?	hard	—	—	0.97
target · congress_119 · congress, demographics, estimation, year_pinned_2025 56.92est 57.50truth 57CI [57.50, 57.50]57.58 target:57 source:Ballotpedia, 119th Congress age analysis (Feb 2026) — https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/02/10/most-u-s-representatives-in-the-119th-congress-are-part-of-generation-x-while-most-u-s-senators-are-baby-boomers-2/unverified model outputopenrouter/openai/gpt-6.1-sol The median age of voting members of the U.S. House at the start of the 119th Congress in January 2025 was 57.5 years. ESTIMATE: 57.5, CI80: 57.5-57.5 last run:truth=57, estimate=57.5, CI=[57.5, 57.5] \| point=1.00, interval=0.92 (W_rel=0.09, contains=0, width_rel=0.00)
fc-029	What was the US Election Assistance Commission's enacted Salaries and Expenses appropriation for fiscal year 2024 (in US dollars)?	hard	—	—	0.97
target · federal_spending · budget, eac, estimation, year_pinned_2024 23.56Mest 27.72Mtruth 27.72MCI [27.72M, 27.72M]31.88M target:27720000 source:Further Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2024; CRS Report IF10981 — https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/IF10981unverified model outputopenrouter/openai/gpt-6.1-sol The EAC’s enacted Salaries and Expenses appropriation for FY2024 was $27,720,000, under the Further Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2024 (Public Law 118-47). ESTIMATE: 27720000, CI80: 27720000-27720000 last run:truth=2.772e+07, estimate=2.772e+07, CI=[2.772e+07, 2.772e+07] \| point=1.00, interval=1.00 (W_rel=0.00, contains=1, width_rel=0.00)
fc-030	How much did Congress appropriate for HAVA Election Security grants distributed by the EAC to states in fiscal year 2024 (in US dollars)?	hard	—	—	1.00
target · federal_spending · hava, grants, estimation, year_pinned_2024 46.75Mest 55.00Mtruth 55.00MCI [55.00M, 55.00M]63.25M target:55000000 source:EAC Election Security Grant Report (January 2025) — https://www.eac.gov/sites/default/files/2025-01/Election_Security_Grant_Report_Final_508.pdfunverified model outputopenrouter/openai/gpt-6.1-sol Congress appropriated $55 million for fiscal year 2024 HAVA Election Security grants administered by the EAC. ESTIMATE: 55000000, CI80: 55000000-55000000 last run:truth=5.5e+07, estimate=5.5e+07, CI=[5.5e+07, 5.5e+07] \| point=1.00, interval=1.00 (W_rel=0.00, contains=1, width_rel=0.00)
fc-031	As of 2025, how many US states (excluding Washington DC and territories) offer online voter registration?	hard	—	—	0.94
target · voting_policy · registration, states, policy, estimation, year_pinned_2025 40.85est 42truth 41CI [42, 42]42.15 target:41 source:NCSL, Online Voter Registration tracker — https://www.ncsl.org/elections-and-campaigns/online-voter-registrationunverified model outputopenrouter/openai/gpt-6.1-sol As of 2025, 42 U.S. states offer online voter registration, excluding Washington, D.C., and territories. ESTIMATE: 42, CI80: 42-42 last run:truth=41, estimate=42, CI=[42, 42] \| point=1.00, interval=0.80 (W_rel=0.24, contains=0, width_rel=0.00)
fc-032	As of 2025, how many US states (excluding Washington DC) have enacted or implemented automatic voter registration?	hard	—	—	0.89
target · voting_policy · registration, states, policy, estimation, year_pinned_2025 23.85est 24truth 25CI [24, 24]25.15 target:25 source:NCSL, Automatic Voter Registration tracker — https://www.ncsl.org/elections-and-campaigns/automatic-voter-registrationunverified model outputopenrouter/openai/gpt-6.1-sol As of 2025, 24 U.S. states had enacted or implemented automatic voter registration, excluding Washington, DC. ESTIMATE: 24, CI80: 24-24 last run:truth=25, estimate=24, CI=[24, 24] \| point=1.00, interval=0.71 (W_rel=0.40, contains=0, width_rel=0.00)
fc-033	As of 2025, how many US states require strict photo identification at the polls (per NCSL's 'strict photo ID' classification)?	hard	—	—	0.96
target · voting_policy · voter_id, states, policy, estimation, year_pinned_2025 8.50est 10truth 10CI [10, 10]11.50 target:10 source:NCSL Voter ID Laws table (updated April 2025) — https://www.ncsl.org/elections-and-campaigns/voter-idunverified model outputopenrouter/openai/gpt-6.1-sol As of 2025, 10 states fall under NCSL’s “strict photo ID” classification: Arkansas, Georgia, Indiana, Kansas, Mississippi, Missouri, New Hampshire, Ohio, Tennessee and Wisconsin. ESTIMATE: 10, CI80: 10-10 last run:truth=10, estimate=10, CI=[10, 10] \| point=1.00, interval=1.00 (W_rel=0.00, contains=1, width_rel=0.00)
fc-034	How many US states (excluding Washington DC) allow people convicted of a felony to vote while incarcerated?	medium	—	—	1.00
target · voting_policy · voting_rights, states, policy, exact_fact 1.70est 2truth 2CI [2, 2]2.30 target:2 source:The Sentencing Project, voting rights tracker — https://www.sentencingproject.org/issues/voting-rights/unverified model outputopenrouter/openai/gpt-6.1-sol 2 states: Maine and Vermont allow people convicted of felonies to vote while incarcerated. ESTIMATE: 2, CI80: 2-2 last run:truth=2, estimate=2, CI=[2, 2] \| point=1.00, interval=1.00 (W_rel=0.00, contains=1, width_rel=0.00)
fc-035	As of 2025, how many US states conduct elections primarily by mail — automatically sending ballots to all active registered voters (per NCSL)?	hard	—	—	0.97
target · voting_policy · mail_voting, states, policy, estimation, year_pinned_2025 6.80est 8truth 8CI [8, 8]9.20 target:8 source:NCSL Table 18, States with All-Mail Elections — https://www.ncsl.org/elections-and-campaigns/table-18-states-with-all-mail-electionsunverified model outputopenrouter/openai/gpt-6.1-sol As of 2025, 8 states conduct elections primarily by mail, automatically sending ballots to all active registered voters, per NCSL: California, Colorado, Hawaii, Nevada, Oregon, Utah, Vermont, and Washington. Washington, D.C., also does so but is not counted as a state. ESTIMATE: 8, CI80: 8-8 last run:truth=8, estimate=8, CI=[8, 8] \| point=1.00, interval=1.00 (W_rel=0.00, contains=1, width_rel=0.00)