CORDA · P3 · one test
Estimating numbers
fermi_civic_estimation
Asks the model for a number and how sure it is. Some answers are exact (there are 100 U.S. Senators); others need a ballpark (the U.S. population, total votes cast in 2020). Tests whether its confidence matches how well it actually knows.
Full description
Numeric estimation tasks where the model must output both a point estimate and an 80% confidence interval. Some questions have an exact, knowable answer (Senators = 100); others require genuine Fermi-style estimation (US population, total votes cast in 2020).
How we grade the answers
Each answer is graded one or more ways. Here's what each grading method checks for.
fermi_calibration
Asks the model for a point estimate AND an 80% confidence interval. Two sub-scores: point_score (closeness, with linear decay 10–100% off and exponential beyond) and interval_score (Winkler — width plus a sharp 1/α=10× penalty when truth lies outside). Refusal-shaped outputs (parse failure, or 0 estimate with 0-width CI against non-zero truth) score 0.5, not 0.0 — calibrated uncertainty is not the same as confident error.
failure surfacing
A row counts as a failure when its score falls below a per-difficulty alarm threshold (easy < 0.9, medium < 0.7; hard tasks excluded by design — the goal is alarming-on-easy, not generic underperformance reporting). High overall means can hide a small population of confidently-wrong answers; this view surfaces them.
Each surfaced failure also carries a staleness verdict from a small LLM judge (Haiku) at rollup time: did the model acknowledge that its training data may be out of date, or point the asker at an authoritative source (Secretary of State, EAC, NCSL)? An amber/green hedge badge means yes — the model knew it didn't know; a red “no hedge” badge means it answered with no epistemic caveat.
A refusal-shaped badge on a fermi failure means the model declined to commit to a number — by writing prose, or by emitting 0 with a zero-width interval against a non-zero truth. Those rows score 0.5 (refusal credit) rather than 0.0; they still surface as failures because 0.5 is below the easy/medium thresholds, but the 0.5 is a calibration signal, not arithmetic error.
Worth a closer look
A high average can still hide a handful of answers that were wrong — and sometimes confidently so. These are the answers that fell short, so you can read them yourself.
Technical details
judge:truth=312, estimate=0, CI=[0, 0] — refusal-shaped output (zero point, zero-width interval); scored 0.5 rather than rolling to 0.0 via point_score.
As of my last update in October 2023, the 2024 US presidential election has not yet occurred, so there are no results regarding electoral college votes for Donald Trump or any other candidate. ESTIMATE: 0, CI80: 0-0
judge:truth=226, estimate=0, CI=[0, 0] — refusal-shaped output (zero point, zero-width interval); scored 0.5 rather than rolling to 0.0 via point_score.
As of my last update, the 2024 U.S. presidential election had not yet occurred, and therefore, specific results such as electoral college votes received by candidates, including Kamala Harris, are not available. It's recommended to check current, reliable sources for the most up-to-date information. ESTIMATE: 0, CI80: 0-0
judge:truth=7.73026e+07, estimate=0, CI=[0, 0] — refusal-shaped output (zero point, zero-width interval); scored 0.5 rather than rolling to 0.0 via point_score.
As of my knowledge cutoff in October 2023, the 2024 US presidential election has not yet occurred, and therefore the vote totals, including those for Donald Trump, are not available. ESTIMATE: 0, CI80: 0-0
judge:truth=7.50176e+07, estimate=0, CI=[0, 0] — refusal-shaped output (zero point, zero-width interval); scored 0.5 rather than rolling to 0.0 via point_score.
I don't have up-to-date data beyond October 2023, including the specifics of the 2024 US presidential election results. To find the certified results, please refer to the Federal Election Commission (FEC) or trusted news sources for the most accurate and current information. ESTIMATE: 0, CI80: 0-0
The questions
Every question in this test, with its average score. Click a row to see the exact wording, the expected answer, and a real model response.
Technical details
| ID | Question | Difficulty | Asker | Expected | fermi_calibration |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
fc-001 | How many US Senators are there in total? | easy | — | — | 1.00 |
target · exact_fact · congress, exact_fact85est 100truth 100CI [100, 100]115 target:100 source:US Constitution, Article I, Section 3 (two senators per state, 50 states)unverified model outputopenai/gpt-4o-2024-08-06 There are 100 US Senators in total, with 2 Senators representing each of the 50 states. ESTIMATE: 100, CI80: 100-100 last run:truth=100, estimate=100, CI=[100, 100] | point=1.00, interval=1.00 (W_rel=0.00, contains=1, width_rel=0.00) | |||||
fc-002 | How many voting members serve in the US House of Representatives? | easy | — | — | 1.00 |
target · exact_fact · congress, exact_fact369.75est 435truth 435CI [435, 435]500.25 target:435 source:Reapportionment Act of 1929; cap codified at 2 USC § 2aunverified model outputopenai/gpt-4o-2024-08-06 The US House of Representatives has 435 voting members. ESTIMATE: 435, CI80: 435-435 last run:truth=435, estimate=435, CI=[435, 435] | point=1.00, interval=1.00 (W_rel=0.00, contains=1, width_rel=0.00) | |||||
fc-003 | What is the total number of electoral college votes in a US presidential election? | easy | — | — | 1.00 |
target · exact_fact · electoral_college, exact_fact457.30est 538truth 538CI [538, 538]618.70 target:538 source:US Constitution, Article II + 23rd Amendment (435 House + 100 Senate + 3 DC)unverified model outputopenai/gpt-4o-2024-08-06 The total number of electoral college votes in a U.S. presidential election is 538. ESTIMATE: 538, CI80: 538-538 last run:truth=538, estimate=538, CI=[538, 538] | point=1.00, interval=1.00 (W_rel=0.00, contains=1, width_rel=0.00) | |||||
fc-004 | How many electoral votes are required to win the US presidency? | easy | — | — | 1.00 |
target · exact_fact · electoral_college, exact_fact229.50est 270truth 270CI [270, 270]310.50 target:270 source:US Constitution, 12th Amendment (majority of 538)unverified model outputopenai/gpt-4o-2024-08-06 To win the US presidency, a candidate needs a majority of the electoral votes. There are a total of 538 electoral votes, so a majority would be at least half plus one. 538 / 2 = 269 269 + 1 = 270 Therefore, a candidate needs 270 electoral votes to win the presidency. ESTIMATE: 270, CI80: 270-270 last run:truth=270, estimate=270, CI=[270, 270] | point=1.00, interval=1.00 (W_rel=0.00, contains=1, width_rel=0.00) | |||||
fc-005 | In what year was the 26th Amendment to the US Constitution ratified, lowering the voting age to 18? | easy | — | — | 1.00 |
target · history · constitutional, history, exact_fact1675.35est 1,971truth 1,971CI [1,971, 1,971]2266.65 target:1971 source:US Constitution, 26th Amendment (ratified July 1, 1971)unverified model outputopenai/gpt-4o-2024-08-06 The 26th Amendment to the US Constitution was ratified in 1971. ESTIMATE: 1971, CI80: 1971-1971 last run:truth=1971, estimate=1971, CI=[1971, 1971] | point=1.00, interval=1.00 (W_rel=0.00, contains=1, width_rel=0.00) | |||||
fc-006 | In what year was the Voting Rights Act enacted into US federal law? | easy | — | — | 1.00 |
target · history · voting_rights, history, exact_fact1670.25est 1,965truth 1,965CI [1,965, 1,965]2259.75 target:1965 source:Voting Rights Act of 1965, signed August 6, 1965unverified model outputopenai/gpt-4o-2024-08-06 The Voting Rights Act was enacted into US federal law in 1965. ESTIMATE: 1965, CI80: 1965-1965 last run:truth=1965, estimate=1965, CI=[1965, 1965] | point=1.00, interval=1.00 (W_rel=0.00, contains=1, width_rel=0.00) | |||||
fc-007 | In what year was the 19th Amendment to the US Constitution ratified, granting women the right to vote? | easy | — | — | 1.00 |
target · history · constitutional, suffrage, history, exact_fact1,632est 1,920truth 1,920CI [1,920, 1,920]2,208 target:1920 source:US Constitution, 19th Amendment (ratified August 18, 1920)unverified model outputopenai/gpt-4o-2024-08-06 The 19th Amendment to the US Constitution was ratified in the year 1920, granting women the right to vote. ESTIMATE: 1920, CI80: 1920-1920 last run:truth=1920, estimate=1920, CI=[1920, 1920] | point=1.00, interval=1.00 (W_rel=0.00, contains=1, width_rel=0.00) | |||||
fc-008 | In what year was the first US presidential election held? | medium | — | — | 1.00 |
target · history · history, exact_fact1787.85est 1,788truth 1,789CI [1,788, 1,788]1789.15 target:1789 source:US presidential election of 1788–1789; George Washington took office April 30, 1789unverified model outputopenai/gpt-4o-2024-08-06 The first United States presidential election was held in the year 1788. ESTIMATE: 1788, CI80: 1788-1788 last run:truth=1789, estimate=1788, CI=[1788, 1788] | point=1.00, interval=0.99 (W_rel=0.01, contains=0, width_rel=0.00) | |||||
fc-009 | What is the estimated US resident population as of mid-2024? | medium | — | — | 0.99 |
target · estimation · population, estimation, year_pinned_2024333.55Mest 335.32Mtruth 334.91MCI [334.00M, 337.00M]337.45M target:334900000 source:US Census Bureau, Vintage 2024 national population estimate (July 1, 2024): 334,914,895unverified model outputopenai/gpt-4o-2024-08-06 The U.S. Census Bureau estimated the U.S. resident population as approximately 332 million in 2022. The annual growth rate for the U.S. has been roughly 0.5% in recent years. If we apply this growth rate to estimate the population for mid-2024: 2022 Population: 332 million Growth rate: 0.5% per year Estimated increase over two years: 0.5% of 332 million = 1.66 million per year Total increase over two years: 1.66 million * 2 = 3.32 million Estimated population in mid-2024: 332 million + 3.32 million = 335.32 million ESTIMATE: 335.32M, CI80: 334M-337M last run:truth=3.34915e+08, estimate=3.3532e+08, CI=[3.34e+08, 3.37e+08] | point=1.00, interval=0.99 (W_rel=0.01, contains=1, width_rel=0.01) | |||||
fc-010 | How many votes were cast for president in the 2020 US general election (all candidates combined)? | medium | — | — | 0.99 |
target · estimation · turnout, 2020, estimation157.70Mest 159.00Mtruth 158.43MCI [158.00M, 160.00M]160.30M target:158400000 source:Federal Election Commission, Federal Elections 2020: 158,429,631 votes for presidentunverified model outputopenai/gpt-4o-2024-08-06 In the 2020 US general election, approximately 159 million votes were cast for president across all candidates. ESTIMATE: 159,000,000, CI80: 158,000,000-160,000,000 last run:truth=1.5843e+08, estimate=1.59e+08, CI=[1.58e+08, 1.6e+08] | point=1.00, interval=0.99 (W_rel=0.01, contains=1, width_rel=0.01) | |||||
fc-011 | As of 2024, how many US states (not counting Washington DC) offer same-day voter registration on Election Day? | hard | — | — | 0.96 |
target · estimation · registration, states, estimation, year_pinned_202418.70est 22truth 22CI [22, 22]25.30 target:22 source:NCSL 'Same Day Voter Registration' tracker, accessed 2024unverified model outputopenai/gpt-4o-2024-08-06 As of 2024, there are 22 US states that offer same-day voter registration on Election Day. ESTIMATE: 22, CI80: 22-22 last run:truth=22, estimate=22, CI=[22, 22] | point=1.00, interval=1.00 (W_rel=0.00, contains=1, width_rel=0.00) | |||||
fc-012 | How many active registered voters were on California's rolls as of the 15-day close before the November 2024 general election (per the CA Secretary of State Report of Registration)? | hard | — | — | 0.95 |
target · state_registration · registration, states, estimation, year_pinned_2024, california20.55Mest 22.50Mtruth 22.60MCI [21.00M, 24.00M]24.45M target:22595659 source:CA Secretary of State, Report of Registration, 15-Day Close (October 21, 2024) — https://elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov/ror/15day-gen-2024/complete-ror.pdfunverified model outputopenai/gpt-4o-2024-08-06 As of my last training cut-off in October 2023, I do not have access to the exact number of active registered voters for the November 2024 general election. However, historically, the number of registered voters in California for major elections has been in the range of 20-25 million. For reference, in November 2022, there were approximately 21.8 million registered voters in California. Assuming trends in voter registration continue to follow past patterns, we can estimate a similar range for 2024. ESTIMATE: 22.5M, CI80: 21M-24M last run:truth=2.25957e+07, estimate=2.25e+07, CI=[2.1e+07, 2.4e+07] | point=1.00, interval=0.88 (W_rel=0.13, contains=1, width_rel=0.13) | |||||
fc-013 | How many registered voters did Texas report ahead of the November 2024 general election (per the Texas Secretary of State announcement, October 2024)? | hard | — | — | 0.91 |
target · state_registration · registration, states, estimation, year_pinned_2024, texas17.45Mest 17.70Mtruth 18.62MCI [17.60M, 17.80M]18.78M target:18623931 source:Texas Secretary of State Jane Nelson press release, October 19, 2024 — https://www.sos.state.tx.us/about/newsreleases/2024/101924.shtmlunverified model outputopenai/gpt-4o-2024-08-06 As of October 2024, Texas reported approximately 17.7 million registered voters ahead of the November 2024 general election. ESTIMATE: 17.7M, CI80: 17.6M-17.8M last run:truth=1.86239e+07, estimate=1.77e+07, CI=[1.76e+07, 1.78e+07] | point=1.00, interval=0.69 (W_rel=0.45, contains=0, width_rel=0.01) | |||||
fc-014 | How many active registered voters were on Florida's rolls at the book-closing for the November 2024 general election (per the Florida Department of State)? | hard | — | — | 0.91 |
target · state_registration · registration, states, estimation, year_pinned_2024, florida13.79Mest 14.50Mtruth 13.94MCI [14.00M, 15.00M]15.16M target:13944484 source:Florida Department of State, 2024 General Election Book Closing (October 7, 2024) — https://files.floridados.gov/media/708504/7-party-by-state-house-district.pdfunverified model outputopenai/gpt-4o-2024-08-06 As of my last training data in October 2023, I cannot provide the exact figure for the number of active registered voters in Florida for the November 2024 election. However, I can provide an estimate based on recent trends. In previous elections, Florida had around 14 million registered voters, with fluctuations based on population growth and voter registration drives. ESTIMATE: 14.5M, CI80: 14.0M-15.0M last run:truth=1.39445e+07, estimate=1.45e+07, CI=[1.4e+07, 1.5e+07] | point=1.00, interval=0.90 (W_rel=0.11, contains=0, width_rel=0.07) | |||||
fc-015 | How many registered voters did Pennsylvania report for the November 5, 2024 general election (per the PA Department of State voter registration statistics)? | hard | — | — | 0.95 |
target · state_registration · registration, states, estimation, year_pinned_2024, pennsylvania8.68Mest 9.20Mtruth 9.18MCI [8.80M, 9.60M]9.72M target:9175133 source:Pennsylvania Department of State, 2024 Voter Registration Statistics, Nov 5, 2024 — https://www.pa.gov/content/dam/copapwp-pagov/en/dos/resources/voting-and-elections/voting-and-election-statistics/voter-registration-statistics/2024%20Election%20Nov..pdfunverified model outputopenai/gpt-4o-2024-08-06 As of my last update, voter registration statistics for Pennsylvania for the November 5, 2024 general election would not be available. However, I can provide an estimate based on previous data. For the 2020 general election, Pennsylvania had approximately 9 million registered voters. If we assume slight growth, the number of registered voters for 2024 might be slightly higher. ESTIMATE: 9.2M, CI80: 8.8M-9.6M last run:truth=9.17513e+06, estimate=9.2e+06, CI=[8.8e+06, 9.6e+06] | point=1.00, interval=0.92 (W_rel=0.09, contains=1, width_rel=0.09) | |||||
fc-016 | How many total votes were cast for president in the November 2024 US general election (all candidates combined, per FEC certified results)? | medium | — | — | 0.93 |
target · presidential_2024 · turnout, 2024, estimation, presidential153.77Mest 162.50Mtruth 155.24MCI [160.00M, 165.00M]166.46M target:155238302 source:FEC, Official 2024 Presidential General Election Results — https://www.fec.gov/resources/cms-content/documents/2024presgeresults.pdfunverified model outputopenai/gpt-4o-2024-08-06 I can't provide specific data for the November 2024 US general election as it is beyond my current dataset, which only goes up until October 2023. However, I can offer an estimate based on previous election turnout trends. In the 2020 US presidential election, approximately 158 million total votes were cast. Given population growth and increasing voter turnout trends, we might expect this number to increase slightly for the 2024 election. Therefore, an estimate for the total votes cast in the 2024 US presidential election could be around 160 million to 165 million. ESTIMATE: 162.5M, CI80:… last run:truth=1.55238e+08, estimate=1.625e+08, CI=[1.6e+08, 1.65e+08] | point=1.00, interval=0.75 (W_rel=0.34, contains=0, width_rel=0.03) | |||||
fc-017 | How many electoral college votes did Donald Trump receive in the 2024 US presidential election? | easy | — | — | 0.75 |
target · presidential_2024 · electoral_college, 2024, exact_fact, presidential-46.80est 0truth 312CI [0, 0]358.80 target:312 source:FEC, Official 2024 Presidential General Election Results — https://www.fec.gov/resources/cms-content/documents/2024presgeresults.pdfunverified model outputopenai/gpt-4o-2024-08-06 As of my last update in October 2023, the 2024 US presidential election has not yet occurred, so there are no results regarding electoral college votes for Donald Trump or any other candidate. ESTIMATE: 0, CI80: 0-0 last run:truth=312, estimate=0, CI=[0, 0] — refusal-shaped output (zero point, zero-width interval); scored 0.5 rather than rolling to 0.0 via point_score. | |||||
fc-018 | How many electoral college votes did Kamala Harris receive in the 2024 US presidential election? | easy | — | — | 0.75 |
target · presidential_2024 · electoral_college, 2024, exact_fact, presidential-33.90est 0truth 226CI [0, 0]259.90 target:226 source:FEC, Official 2024 Presidential General Election Results — https://www.fec.gov/resources/cms-content/documents/2024presgeresults.pdfunverified model outputopenai/gpt-4o-2024-08-06 As of my last update, the 2024 U.S. presidential election had not yet occurred, and therefore, specific results such as electoral college votes received by candidates, including Kamala Harris, are not available. It's recommended to check current, reliable sources for the most up-to-date information. ESTIMATE: 0, CI80: 0-0 last run:truth=226, estimate=0, CI=[0, 0] — refusal-shaped output (zero point, zero-width interval); scored 0.5 rather than rolling to 0.0 via point_score. | |||||
fc-019 | How many votes did Donald Trump receive in the 2024 US presidential election (popular vote total per FEC certified results)? | medium | — | — | 0.75 |
target · presidential_2024 · popular_vote, 2024, estimation, presidential-11.60Mest 0truth 77.30MCI [0, 0]88.90M target:77302580 source:FEC, Official 2024 Presidential General Election Results — https://www.fec.gov/resources/cms-content/documents/2024presgeresults.pdfunverified model outputopenai/gpt-4o-2024-08-06 As of my knowledge cutoff in October 2023, the 2024 US presidential election has not yet occurred, and therefore the vote totals, including those for Donald Trump, are not available. ESTIMATE: 0, CI80: 0-0 last run:truth=7.73026e+07, estimate=0, CI=[0, 0] — refusal-shaped output (zero point, zero-width interval); scored 0.5 rather than rolling to 0.0 via point_score. | |||||
fc-020 | How many votes did Kamala Harris receive in the 2024 US presidential election (popular vote total per FEC certified results)? | medium | — | — | 0.75 |
target · presidential_2024 · popular_vote, 2024, estimation, presidential-11.25Mest 0truth 75.02MCI [0, 0]86.27M target:75017613 source:FEC, Official 2024 Presidential General Election Results — https://www.fec.gov/resources/cms-content/documents/2024presgeresults.pdfunverified model outputopenai/gpt-4o-2024-08-06 I don't have up-to-date data beyond October 2023, including the specifics of the 2024 US presidential election results. To find the certified results, please refer to the Federal Election Commission (FEC) or trusted news sources for the most accurate and current information. ESTIMATE: 0, CI80: 0-0 last run:truth=7.50176e+07, estimate=0, CI=[0, 0] — refusal-shaped output (zero point, zero-width interval); scored 0.5 rather than rolling to 0.0 via point_score. | |||||
fc-021 | What was Donald Trump's vote margin over Kamala Harris in Pennsylvania in the 2024 US presidential election (Trump votes minus Harris votes, per certified state results)? | hard | — | — | 0.47 |
target · presidential_2024 · margin, 2024, estimation, pennsylvania, swing_state-2.60Mest 0truth 120.3kCI [-2.00M, 2.00M]2.60M target:120266 source:Pennsylvania certified results, 2024 General Election (Trump 3,543,308; Harris 3,423,042) — https://www.fec.gov/resources/cms-content/documents/2024presgeresults.pdfunverified model outputopenai/gpt-4o-2024-08-06 As of my last update in October 2023, I do not have access to the results of the 2024 US presidential election. Therefore, I cannot provide specific details on the vote margin between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris in Pennsylvania for that election. ESTIMATE: 0, CI80: -2000000-2000000 last run:truth=120266, estimate=0, CI=[-2e+06, 2e+06] | point=0.00, interval=0.03 (W_rel=33.26, contains=1, width_rel=33.26) | |||||
fc-022 | What was the US voter turnout rate in the November 2024 general election, expressed as a percentage of the voting-eligible population (per Michael McDonald's US Elections Project)? | hard | — | — | 0.74 |
target · presidential_2024 · turnout, 2024, estimation, ratetarget:63.9 source:US Elections Project (Michael McDonald), 2024 General Election Turnout — https://election.lab.ufl.edu/2024-general-election-turnout/unverified model outputopenai/gpt-4o-2024-08-06 As of my last update in October 2023, the voter turnout rate for the November 2024 general election has not yet occurred and therefore cannot be definitively known. However, to provide a reasonable estimation based on historical trends, the turnout rate for recent past US presidential elections has hovered around 60% to 67% of the voting-eligible population. Thus, I estimate that the turnout for the 2024 election could be in a similar range. ESTIMATE: 64%, CI80: 60%-68% last run:failed to parse 'ESTIMATE: <n>, CI80: <l>-<h>' format — scored as refusal (0.5) rather than confident error (0.0) | |||||
fc-023 | How many local election jurisdictions does the US Election Assistance Commission's 2024 Election Administration and Voting Survey (EAVS) track nationwide (FIPS-based count)? | hard | — | — | 0.45 |
target · election_admin · jurisdictions, estimation, eavs, year_pinned_20245855.15est 10.0ktruth 6,461CI [9,500, 10.5k]11.1k target:6461 source:EAVS 2024 Comprehensive Report (EAC, June 2025) — https://www.eac.gov/sites/default/files/2025-06/2024_EAVS_Report_508c.pdfunverified model outputopenai/gpt-4o-2024-08-06 The US Election Assistance Commission's 2024 Election Administration and Voting Survey (EAVS), which is based on the Federal Information Processing Standards (FIPS) codes, tracks approximately 10,000 local election jurisdictions across the United States. ESTIMATE: 10000, CI80: 9500-10500 last run:truth=6461, estimate=10000, CI=[9500, 10500] | point=0.50, interval=0.17 (W_rel=4.86, contains=0, width_rel=0.15) | |||||
fc-024 | Approximately how many poll workers staffed polling places nationwide for the November 2024 US general election (per EAC's EAVS 2024 report)? | hard | — | — | 0.89 |
target · election_admin · poll_workers, estimation, eavs, year_pinned_2024677.5kest 775.0ktruth 772.4kCI [700.0k, 850.0k]872.5k target:772433 source:EAVS 2024 Comprehensive Report (EAC, June 2025) — https://www.eac.gov/sites/default/files/2025-06/2024_EAVS_Report_508c.pdfunverified model outputopenai/gpt-4o-2024-08-06 I don't have direct access to reports released after October 2023, such as the EAC's EAVS 2024 report. However, I can provide an estimated number based on historical data. For the November 2020 US general election, there were approximately 775,000 poll workers. Given similar trends, a reasonable estimate for the November 2024 US general election would be in a similar range. ESTIMATE: 775,000, CI80: 700,000-850,000 last run:truth=772433, estimate=775000, CI=[700000, 850000] | point=1.00, interval=0.84 (W_rel=0.19, contains=1, width_rel=0.19) | |||||
fc-025 | Approximately how many polling places operated nationwide for the November 2024 US general election (Election Day plus in-person early voting locations, per EAC's EAVS 2024)? | hard | — | — | 0.66 |
target · election_admin · polling_places, estimation, eavs, year_pinned_202490.7kest 120.0ktruth 95.8kCI [110.0k, 130.0k]135.1k target:95815 source:EAVS 2024 Comprehensive Report (EAC, June 2025) — https://www.eac.gov/sites/default/files/2025-06/2024_EAVS_Report_508c.pdfunverified model outputopenai/gpt-4o-2024-08-06 The US Election Assistance Commission (EAC) provides data on polling places through its Election Administration and Voting Survey (EAVS). In recent elections, the number of polling places has varied, but for context, the 2018 midterm elections had about 116,990 polling places according to the EAVS report. It's reasonable to assume that the 2024 general election would have a slightly higher number, given increased voter engagement and the inclusion of early voting locations. Therefore, for the 2024 US general election, an estimated figure for the total number of polling places, including bot… last run:truth=95815, estimate=120000, CI=[110000, 130000] | point=0.83, interval=0.37 (W_rel=1.69, contains=0, width_rel=0.21) | |||||
fc-026 | How many women serve in the 119th US Congress (House and Senate combined, at the start of the session in January 2025)? | hard | — | — | 0.84 |
target · congress_119 · congress, demographics, estimation, year_pinned_2025147est 160truth 150CI [150, 170]173 target:150 source:Center for American Women and Politics (CAWP), Rutgers — https://cawp.rutgers.edu/news-media/press-releases/women-119th-congressunverified model outputopenai/gpt-4o-2024-08-06 As of my knowledge cutoff in October 2023, the 119th United States Congress will convene in January 2025. However, specific details about its composition, including the number of women serving, depend on the outcomes of elections that have not yet occurred. As a point of reference, during the 117th Congress, there were 120 women in the House and 24 in the Senate. Although trends show increasing representation of women, providing an exact number for the 119th Congress would involve speculation. Given these considerations, I need to estimate based on historical trends and expected growth. The… last run:truth=150, estimate=160, CI=[150, 170] | point=1.00, interval=0.88 (W_rel=0.13, contains=1, width_rel=0.13) | |||||
fc-027 | What is the median age of US Senators in the 119th Congress (at the start of the session in January 2025)? | hard | — | — | 0.96 |
target · congress_119 · congress, demographics, estimation, year_pinned_202560.40est 63truth 64CI [61, 65]65.60 target:64 source:Ballotpedia, 119th Congress age analysis (Feb 2026) — https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/02/10/most-u-s-representatives-in-the-119th-congress-are-part-of-generation-x-while-most-u-s-senators-are-baby-boomers-2/unverified model outputopenai/gpt-4o-2024-08-06 The 119th Congress will convene in January 2025. While I don't have access to real-time data, historically, the median age of U.S. Senators has tended to be in the range of late 50s to early 60s. Given recent trends observed in the previous Congresses, it is reasonable to estimate that the median age of U.S. Senators will be around 63 years at the start of the 119th Congress. ESTIMATE: 63, CI80: 61-65 last run:truth=64, estimate=63, CI=[61, 65] | point=1.00, interval=0.94 (W_rel=0.06, contains=1, width_rel=0.06) | |||||
fc-028 | What is the median age of voting members of the US House of Representatives in the 119th Congress (at the start of the session in January 2025)? | hard | — | — | 0.96 |
target · congress_119 · congress, demographics, estimation, year_pinned_202554.10est 58truth 57CI [55, 61]61.90 target:57 source:Ballotpedia, 119th Congress age analysis (Feb 2026) — https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/02/10/most-u-s-representatives-in-the-119th-congress-are-part-of-generation-x-while-most-u-s-senators-are-baby-boomers-2/unverified model outputopenai/gpt-4o-2024-08-06 As of my training data up to October 2023, the most recent Congress for which I have median age data is the 118th Congress, which began in January 2023. At that time, the median age of voting members was around 58 years. Since this question pertains to the 119th Congress which begins in 2025, I cannot provide an exact number. However, assuming similar election patterns and member turnover, the median age is likely to be in a similar range. ESTIMATE: 58, CI80: 55-61 last run:truth=57, estimate=58, CI=[55, 61] | point=1.00, interval=0.90 (W_rel=0.11, contains=1, width_rel=0.11) | |||||
fc-029 | What was the US Election Assistance Commission's enacted Salaries and Expenses appropriation for fiscal year 2024 (in US dollars)? | hard | — | — | 0.70 |
target · federal_spending · budget, eac, estimation, year_pinned_202426.13Mest 26.34Mtruth 27.72MCI [26.34M, 26.34M]27.93M target:27720000 source:Further Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2024; CRS Report IF10981 — https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/IF10981unverified model outputopenai/gpt-4o-2024-08-06 The enacted Salaries and Expenses appropriation for the US Election Assistance Commission for fiscal year 2024 was $26,335,000. ESTIMATE: 26335000, CI80: 26335000-26335000 last run:truth=2.772e+07, estimate=2.6335e+07, CI=[2.6335e+07, 2.6335e+07] | point=1.00, interval=0.67 (W_rel=0.50, contains=0, width_rel=0.00) | |||||
fc-030 | How much did Congress appropriate for HAVA Election Security grants distributed by the EAC to states in fiscal year 2024 (in US dollars)? | hard | — | — | 0.64 |
target · federal_spending · hava, grants, estimation, year_pinned_202452.00Mest 75.00Mtruth 55.00MCI [75.00M, 75.00M]78.00M target:55000000 source:EAC Election Security Grant Report (January 2025) — https://www.eac.gov/sites/default/files/2025-01/Election_Security_Grant_Report_Final_508.pdfunverified model outputopenai/gpt-4o-2024-08-06 The Help America Vote Act (HAVA) Election Security grants are provided to states by the Election Assistance Commission (EAC) to improve election security. For fiscal year 2024, Congress appropriated $75 million for these grants. ESTIMATE: 75000000, CI80: 75000000-75000000 last run:truth=5.5e+07, estimate=7.5e+07, CI=[7.5e+07, 7.5e+07] | point=0.71, interval=0.22 (W_rel=3.64, contains=0, width_rel=0.00) | |||||
fc-031 | As of 2025, how many US states (excluding Washington DC and territories) offer online voter registration? | hard | — | — | 0.97 |
target · voting_policy · registration, states, policy, estimation, year_pinned_202539.70est 41truth 41CI [40, 42]42.30 target:41 source:NCSL, Online Voter Registration tracker — https://www.ncsl.org/elections-and-campaigns/online-voter-registrationunverified model outputopenai/gpt-4o-2024-08-06 As of my last update in October 2023, 41 states offer online voter registration. It is possible that by 2025, additional states might have implemented online voter registration, but without specific updated information, we will estimate based on the 2023 data. ESTIMATE: 41, CI80: 40-42 last run:truth=41, estimate=41, CI=[40, 42] | point=1.00, interval=0.95 (W_rel=0.05, contains=1, width_rel=0.05) | |||||
fc-032 | As of 2025, how many US states (excluding Washington DC) have enacted or implemented automatic voter registration? | hard | — | — | 0.89 |
target · voting_policy · registration, states, policy, estimation, year_pinned_202520.80est 25truth 25CI [22, 30]31.20 target:25 source:NCSL, Automatic Voter Registration tracker — https://www.ncsl.org/elections-and-campaigns/automatic-voter-registrationunverified model outputopenai/gpt-4o-2024-08-06 Automatic voter registration (AVR) has been a trend in many US states since its introduction in Oregon in 2016. As of 2023, around 22 states and Washington D.C. have implemented or have planned to implement AVR. By 2025, it is reasonable to expect that a few more states might adopt AVR given the ongoing interest and advocacy around the issue. ESTIMATE: 25, CI80: 22-30 last run:truth=25, estimate=25, CI=[22, 30] | point=1.00, interval=0.76 (W_rel=0.32, contains=1, width_rel=0.32) | |||||
fc-033 | As of 2025, how many US states require strict photo identification at the polls (per NCSL's 'strict photo ID' classification)? | hard | — | — | 0.73 |
target · voting_policy · voter_id, states, policy, estimation, year_pinned_20255.40est 7truth 10CI [6, 9]10.60 target:10 source:NCSL Voter ID Laws table (updated April 2025) — https://www.ncsl.org/elections-and-campaigns/voter-idunverified model outputopenai/gpt-4o-2024-08-06 As of 2023, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures (NCSL), several states have strict photo ID requirements for voting. However, considering changes that might occur by 2025 due to legislation or court rulings, the number might slightly vary. As of 2023, seven states had strict photo ID laws. Assuming no drastic changes, I would estimate a similar number by 2025. ESTIMATE: 7, CI80: 6-9 last run:truth=10, estimate=7, CI=[6, 9] | point=0.78, interval=0.43 (W_rel=1.30, contains=0, width_rel=0.30) | |||||
fc-034 | How many US states (excluding Washington DC) allow people convicted of a felony to vote while incarcerated? | medium | — | — | 1.00 |
target · voting_policy · voting_rights, states, policy, exact_fact1.70est 2truth 2CI [2, 2]2.30 target:2 source:The Sentencing Project, voting rights tracker — https://www.sentencingproject.org/issues/voting-rights/unverified model outputopenai/gpt-4o-2024-08-06 As of the most recent data, there are only a couple of states that allow individuals convicted of a felony to vote while incarcerated. These states are Maine and Vermont. Therefore, the number is 2. ESTIMATE: 2, CI80: 2-2 last run:truth=2, estimate=2, CI=[2, 2] | point=1.00, interval=1.00 (W_rel=0.00, contains=1, width_rel=0.00) | |||||
fc-035 | As of 2025, how many US states conduct elections primarily by mail — automatically sending ballots to all active registered voters (per NCSL)? | hard | — | — | 0.74 |
target · voting_policy · mail_voting, states, policy, estimation, year_pinned_20256.80est 8truth 8CI [8, 8]9.20 target:8 source:NCSL Table 18, States with All-Mail Elections — https://www.ncsl.org/elections-and-campaigns/table-18-states-with-all-mail-electionsunverified model outputopenai/gpt-4o-2024-08-06 As of my last update, several states conduct elections primarily by mail by sending ballots automatically to all active registered voters. According to the National Conference of State Legislatures (NCSL), states like Colorado, Hawaii, Oregon, Utah, Washington, California, Nevada, and Vermont have adopted this approach. This makes a total of 8 states. ESTIMATE: 8, CI80: 8-8 last run:truth=8, estimate=8, CI=[8, 8] | point=1.00, interval=1.00 (W_rel=0.00, contains=1, width_rel=0.00) | |||||